Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
